Gerrit Cole, Starting Pitchers and the Hall of Fame

I was enjoying the silence of my drive home from work Monday afternoon. I have given up “Evan and Tikki” for Lent so either I’ll surf for something else on the radio or take in the quiet. Most times, I appreciate the lack of noise and with the weather turning warmer, the window will go down so I can listen to the sounds of birds chirping in slowing traffic. I was about 85% of the way home when I got the alert that all fans of the New York Yankees were dreading: Gerrit Cole will be having Tommy John surgery. Based on reports from Sunday, this was not exactly a surprise. The silence of the remaining drive allowed my mind to ponder an interesting question.

How many of today’s starting pitchers will make the Hall of Fame?

I thought about this because, let’s face it, the best of Gerrit Cole is over. By the time he returns to a Major League mound, he will be 36 years old. It is safe to say that he will not repeat his Cy Young season of 2023. He may not pitch more than 120 innings in a season for the rest of his career. Cole will go down as one of the best pitchers of this era with six top five Cy Young finishes, a two time ERA champion and the leader in strikeouts in two other seasons. His career ERA is 3.18 in an age where an ERA of 3.75 to 4.00 is considered fairly good. If this was 20 years ago, I would say Gerrit Cole would not be going to the Hall of Fame.

Now? He will be elected to Cooperstown. How many others that are pitching this decade will join him? Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer are locks. I can see Jacob deGrom getting in. After that? Your guess is at good as mine. This does not diminish the quality of starting pitching. It’s just the way they are used is not conducive to everlasting greatness. I’m sorry, the Hall of Fame cannot reward a starting pitcher whose career innings pitched per start is less than six, no matter how dominant he is. I honestly believe that once the group of starting pitchers I mentioned above are elected to the Hall, it might be a long time before we see another one enshrined.

I thought of two guys that might have a chance should they continue on their current trajectory: Framber Valdez and Spencer Strider. Valdez has been one of the American League’s best pitchers over the last five years with three top ten Cy Young finishes and a World Series Championship. Strider, despite coming off TJ surgery, is still only 25 and has the makeup and dominance to be a true ace.

How about you? Who do you think has a chance to a great starting pitcher, so great that he might get a plaque in the Hall of Fame?