The number three factors into many parts of my life. I have three kids. I am one of three siblings. My favorite number since childhood is three. I have three legs (OK that part isn’t true). As we trudge on during this offseason (those of us without playoff teams), there are three free agents, one for each of our respective teams, that made huge impacts in 2025. You know who they are; what I am going is predict the likelihood that they return to their clubs.

Cody Bellinger: He enjoyed an extremely productive first and, perhaps only, season in the Bronx. Bellinger’s 29 home runs represented his highest output since 2019. He has defensive versatility, having spent time in left field, center field and first base, playing each spot flawlessly. He opted out of the final two years of his contract, a total of $52 million dollars. At 30 years old, Bellinger probably has one last chance to to score a big payday. The Yanks have been linked to Kyle Tucker for a while; he is also a free agent. There are some moving parts that could affect a reunion such as signing Tucker, where to put Jasson Dominguez and the possibility of a Trent Grisham return. If Bellinger opted out of a $25 million dollar deal for 2026, he has to believe he can get more on the open market. I am not sure New York will go much more and add a significant amount of years. 38% chance Cody Bellinger returns to the Yankees.
Pete Alonso: For a long time, I believed the Mets’ first baseman would not be back beyond this year. You know how the contract negations went last offseason. I thought the big celebration for Alonso after he broke Darryl Strawberry‘s club record for home runs was a, “thank you for all you have done for us” type moment. I interpreted that as the team not making a competitive offer to keep Alonso. However, as time has gone on, I have altered my thinking. The Mets have some significant money coming off the books over the next two years with Jeff McNeil due to be a free agent after 2026; Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas are done after 2027. The three young pitchers that debuted in 2025 are club controlled for the next five to six years. After the disastrous ending to the season, I can see Steve Cohen overruling David Stearns and outbidding everyone to keep Alonso. Edwin Diaz is equally as important to resign. Cohen gets it done with his big two stars. 65% chance Pete Alonso returns to the Mets.
Kyle Schwarber: The Phillies’ designated hitter picked the perfect season to hit free agency. His 56 home runs and 132 RBI’s were tops in the National League. All he has done in his four years in Philadelphia is slug 187 homers. He turns 33 prior to the start of the 2026 season and figures to ask for at least a five year deal. Do the Phillies want to pay him upwards of $30 million per season for a guy who does not play the field? The outfield isn’t an option and Bryce Harper seems to be locked into first base. Nick Castellanos is most certainly gone; the same can probably be said for Max Kepler. Philadelphia will need to address their outfield holes. What is a higher priority, right field or DH? Will they spend enough to get quality for both? I can’t picture the organization running it back with this core after two straight divisional round exits. Then again, Schwarber has become such an integral part of the team and the city that it is hard to picture him somewhere else. 53% chance Kyle Schwarber returns to the Phillies.


